2020 Election Prediction

With election day upon, I thought I would throw my prediction out there so I can see how close I can get to being correct. I have spent a lot of time studying the trends in the polls and am very confident with the map I have predicted.

I used the same model throughout to pick the winner of each state, I took the average poll number in each state, using 538’s numbers, and gave Trump a 2 point bump to account for any late surge or secret Trump vote.

Going into election day Biden has held a pretty consistent lead in the most important swing states, most notably a 5 point lead in Pennsylvania. If Trump has any shot at winning he needs to pick off at least 2 of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and I say this with the assumption Trump will win Florida and Ohio.

If Trump loses one of Florida or Ohio I think it would be about time to pound the gavel right there.

Trump has gone all out rallying in the most important swing states leading up to the election but I just don’t know how much that helps him, his base is showing out strong but is that winning over the votes he needs? I am not sure, but I definitely won’t just ignore the insane support he has been shown in the week leading up to the election, it definitely feels like he is gaining the same sort of momentum that he had in 2016.

However, this isn’t 2016, Biden isn’t even close to as hatable as Clinton was and Trump has 200k+ deaths and a global pandemic on his hands, which fair or not is hurting him badly.

Another thing that will hurt Trump is I imagine 3rd party votes will be way down compared to in 2016, as I have not seen any momentum whatsoever from the Greens or Libertarians.

That is why I think Biden is able to hold his leads in the swing states and pull out 290 electoral votes to win the election.